Analysis: Will Finland be left watching while Norway and Sweden dominate the Olympic cross‑country podiums? Ruka underlined the sport’s painful problem

The last time Olympic cross‑country medals were contested in Beijing 2022, Norway topped the gold table with five titles for a fourth straight Games, but Russia edged Norway in total medals (11–8). With Russia’s stars absent next February in Val di Fiemme, the distribution of medals could narrow further—worryingly, in a way that concentrates success in Norway and Sweden.

Across the intervening major events—Planica 2023 and Trondheim 2025 World Championships—48 individual medals were awarded; only four went to non‑Nordic skiers. Of the remaining 44, Norway took 26 and Sweden 17. Finland’s only individual medal in that span was Lauri Vuorinen’s sprint bronze in Trondheim.

The fragility of Norway and Sweden shows most in sprints: the few non‑Nordic medals since 2023 have come there (e.g., Jules Chappaz bronze, Jessie Diggins 10 km gold in 2023; Federico Pellegrino sprint silver and Nadine Fähndrich sprint bronze in 2025). Most of the remaining outsider success has come in team events, which account for only about one‑third of championship medals.

Ruka 2025/26 World Cup opener reinforced the pattern. In the men’s events, Norway posted a sprint podium sweep (Erik Valnes, Johannes Høsflot Klæbo, Ansgar Evensen) and added two 1–2 finishes. Only Austria’s Mika Vermeulen (3rd in the 10 km interval start) and Sweden’s Edvin Anger (3rd in the 20 km mass start) split the Norwegian dominance. Among women, the only non‑Norwegian/Swedish athlete on any podium was Jessie Diggins (2nd in the 20 km mass start). In the key 10 km interval starts, the podiums were Nor‑Swe: Heidi Weng, Frida Karlsson, and Moa Ilar led the women; the closest Finns and other challengers clustered mainly in places 4–10 (Finns included Iivo Niskanen 5th, Johanna Matintalo 6th, Lauri Vuorinen 6th in the sprint, Jasmi Joensuu 7th, Krista Pärmäkoski 9th). Outside the men’s 20 km, only two non‑Nordic skiers in any race placed 4th–10th.

Historical indicators suggest Ruka is predictive: from 2021–2025, 75% of individual global champions reached the Ruka podium at season start, and most future individual medalists were at least top‑10 in Kuusamo. Examples listed include multiple medals for Klæbo, Ebba Andersson, Frida Karlsson, Jonna Sundling, Therese Johaug and others, with their Ruka form noted alongside.

The analysis links the widening gap to the fluor‑wax ban. With fluorinated products gone, ski quality differences matter even more. The best athletes secure the best equipment from manufacturers, further entrenching Norway and Sweden at the top and making surprises rarer. For the vitality of the sport, a broader medal spread in Val di Fiemme would be desirable—but current evidence points toward another Nordic sweep.