Here are Finland’s chances in the Tour de Ski finale — women have a great shot on the podium, big question marks around Niilo Moilanen

Yle will broadcast the Tour de Ski finale weekend. On Saturday there are classical‑technique sprints and on Sunday the legendary Alpe Cermis final climb — 10 kilometres in freestyle.

Before the Tour final weekend five Finns have abandoned the race.

Iivo Niskanen had already said before the Tour that after four stages he might be tempted to go home. On Thursday Niskanen packed it in when the gap to the Tour lead did not shrink in the pursuit. In the 10 km classical stage he still showed with a fourth place that, after illness, the Olympic engine is back on track.

“As we know, Iivo can prepare for major championships even without racing. Still, it was good that he got that fourth place in the classical. Things are in order,” Yle Sport’s expert Aino‑Kaisa Saarinen summarised.

Lauri Vuorinen fell out at the Tour’s opening event — he did not advance from sprint qualifying for the first time since March 2024. Vuorinen withdrew after three stages because he didn’t feel "quite right." Saturday’s race would have been important for him because he would have got experience on Val di Fiemme’s revamped sprint track, which will soon host Olympic events.

Saarinen thinks the withdrawals are sensible precautionary moves at this point.

“Of course that would have been his most important take from this Tour. Now he misses that. But it’s quite sensible to pull out if you feel your body isn’t 100 percent. His skiing had already looked loose in the last sprint.

“If you compete and have a bad race, I’m not sure you get much useful feeling from the course.”

Ristomatti Hakola fell ill and withdrew after the opening stage. Niko Anttola pulled out after three stages as a precaution as well. Anttola had been delivering steady performances across the Tour, as he has this season.

“He’s certainly had enough racing on the Tour. If the feeling is such, it’s good to pull the handbrake now and check that things are going the right way,” Saarinen sums up Anttola’s situation.

For Hakola, Vuorinen and Anttola the key question now is how severe and lasting the sensations or illnesses have been. Good training and races are needed and there’s little room for sick days so close to the Olympics, Saarinen stresses.

The most worrying withdrawal among the Finnish starters is Krista Pärmäkoski. The other Finnish women continue into the Tour finale weekend.

“Perhaps, as she herself said, illness causes a low ebb. But how long will it continue?

“Of course you shouldn’t compete if you can’t reach speed and you feel bad. The body must normalise so you can still race before the Olympics — that’s where you get the best boost,” Saarinen says.

Pärmäkoski collapsed on the Tour’s second stage, the 10 km classical, finishing as low as 38th, 1:50.5 behind the winner. She believed the poor result was still a consequence of recent illness.

Can Moilanen dazzle again?

Saarinen sees Saturday’s race on the revamped sprint circuit as valuable experience ahead of the Olympics.

“It’s really important to see whether you have to, for example, stop on top of the last hill or how you should attack it.

“Hopefully as many Finnish skiers as possible will get to ski several heats. Jasmi Joensuu in particular has been in very good shape. Likewise Niilo Moilanen and Johanna Matintalo.”

So far the Finnish men have only seven Olympic quota places. Could Moilanen make the team as a pure sprinter?

“It depends on how the other Finns ski. But of course, if he can for instance make a final, it’s hard to push him out. Finland doesn’t have a queue of top‑10 skiers at the men’s distances.

“Earlier mainly good in classical sprints, Niilo was the best Finn in the new mass‑start heat format, finishing seventh. I’ve wanted to see Niilo ski more than just classical sprints.

“His great result in the new format over 5 km was also an Olympic audition. He showed he can hang on and still take the final kick. I’d say he has a shot in a relay, but he must show also on normal distances. Finland hasn’t had an anchor who can sprint in the finish.

“That’s why I see the Alpe Cermis final climb also as a chance for Niilo. There you hang on and draft, even if the event is a very different type of race. It’s a 10 km freestyle and very fit skiers do well. It’s not his best distance, but it’s an opportunity to show he is more than a classical sprinter.”

Women in podium contention?

Jasmi Joensuu, Kerttu Niskanen and Johanna Matintalo are well placed in the Tour overall standings. Saarinen hopes that Niskanen — who has shown a strong surge form — can race sprint heats. That would be valuable both for sharpness and for the Tour GC.

“Kerttu when healthy is an excellent hill‑climber. Since her Tour has progressed so positively, she can surely at least defend or even improve her position.

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A photo caption notes Jessie Diggins is dominating the women’s overall, but otherwise the situation is wide open.

After Virpi Kuitunen and Aino‑Kaisa Saarinen, Finns who have reached top‑3 overall in the Tour include Krista Pärmäkoski (2nd in 2017 and 3rd in 2019), Kerttu Niskanen (2nd in 2023 and 3rd in 2024) and Iivo Niskanen (3rd in 2022).

The Tour podium positions also mean significant prize money: the winner earns €80,000, second €55,000, third €40,000, fourth €25,000, fifth €20,000 and so on down to the top 20.

The final climb is expected to be tough for Joensuu and Matintalo. On the other hand Saarinen thought Matintalo showed her best-ever skating technique in the Trondheim combined race. Joensuu was fourth in the Tour’s 20 km pursuit — earlier her best World Cup result at a distance had been eighth.

“Let’s allow the women to try and produce their best freestyle races of the season. When a skier is fit, they can make any technique and any distance work,” Saarinen insists.

The programme is not available to watch from abroad.