Jasmi Joensuu has a chance today at a rare Finnish feat on the Tour de Ski

Jasmi Joensuu can finish among the top three overall on the Tour de Ski today. Before her, four Finnish women have achieved that.

Jessie Diggins is leading the Tour ahead of Jasmi Joensuu. Can they remain the top two in the final standings?

Jasmi Joensuu has a very good chance today to become the fifth Finnish woman to finish on the overall Tour de Ski podium. On the 20-edition history of the Tour, Virpi Kuitunen has done it three times, Krista Pärmäkoski and Kerttu Niskanen twice each, and Aino-Kaisa Saarinen once.

On Saturday, Joensuu — who claimed her first individual World Cup win on Val di Fiemme's future Olympic tracks — skis the Tour's final stage sitting second overall. She is 1 minute 19 seconds behind the American leader Jessie Diggins, but second place in the final standings is fully realistic.

Sweden's Moa Ilar (3rd) is 19 seconds back. Austria's Teresa Stadlober (5th) and Norway's Heidi Weng (7th) — both often strong on the Alpe Cermis final climb — sit solidly behind Joensuu. Stadlober is 50 seconds behind and two-time Tour winner Weng is 1:07 back.

Johanna Matintalo is also in an excellent position: after six of seven races she sits fourth, just one second behind Ilar in third. Matintalo is a specialist in classic technique and is not as strong in free technique, so she will probably lose at least one place on the final stage.

Joensuu has been skiing well on distance races and is at her best as a strong skating (free technique) skier. Compared with Ilar she should be slightly better in free technique; versus Stadlober and Weng her advantage is that she is clearly a stronger free‑technique skier than they are.

“Looks really good. Jasmi can skate and she knows she's in good shape. The Finnish support staff has been on form, so why shouldn't she deliver another good result on Sunday,” says Yle Sport's expert Aino‑Kaisa Saarinen.

A healthy prize purse

The 29‑year‑old Joensuu's season target is Olympic sprint medal, which will be contested in classic technique similarly to Saturday's World Cup sprint. She still values the Tour de Ski highly.

“I know tomorrow probably won't be my best race and there will be very strong names coming from behind, but now we are so far on the plus side. We'll go and fight. It's one climb, long sure, but I'll go and enjoy it,” Joensuu said to Yle on Saturday evening.

Finland's women's head coach Reijo Jylhä is excited about the strong positions Joensuu and Matintalo have going into the Alpe Cermis climb. The race is being held for the seventh consecutive year as a mass start.

“It's great that after Kuitunen and Saarinen we have Finns this far up the Tour. Tomorrow they aren't among the outright favourites, but that doesn't mean they can't do something on the climb. Both have been in good shape all season,” Jylhä summarised.

There is also solid prize money on offer for the top Tour finishers. Second place in the overall standings is worth €55,000 and third place €40,000. Sixth place receives €16,000.

“Surprisingly many people surprise themselves”

Yle Sport's cross‑country expert Ville Nousiainen sees that Joensuu has what it takes to reach the overall podium.

“For her it helps that on Sunday you only need to race hard for about three kilometres. Although the race is 10 km long, the first seven kilometres are skied together downhill, so nobody drops — you only need to suffer for three kilometres uphill at the end.

“Weng is very good, but she is far from the leaders. The final climb often plays out in similar categories — many surprise themselves when the pressure is really on,” Nousiainen noted.

Tour de Ski standings mentioned in this article are after six of seven stages. The final climb up Alpe Cermis (Val di Fiemme) is scheduled as the decisive stage of the Tour.